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The road to ending poverty runs through 31 severely off track countries
Category: Microcredit | By SDR, 25-Jul-2018 | Viewed 371  Comments 0 | Source Gertz and Kharas

The road to ending poverty runs through 31 severely off track countries


by Geoffrey Gertz and Homi Kharas
February 13, 2018
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Geoffrey Gertz Post-Doctoral Fellow - Global Economy and Development @geoffreygertz

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Homi Kharas Interim Vice President and Director - Global Economy and Development

Over the past two decades, the world has been living through the most dramatic decline in global poverty ever. Since 2000, while global population has increased by 1.4 billion people, the number of people living in extreme poverty dropped by about 1 billion. This remarkable success has brought a goal long considered a pipedream into view: the end of extreme poverty. Three years ago, governments from around the world committed to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030, as the first of the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).

Based on a simple extrapolation of past progress, this goal seems easily attainable: Currently about 8 percent of the world's population lives in extreme poverty, and over the last 20 years that figure has been dropping by roughly one percentage point a year. Yet such back-of-the-envelope calculations obscure the fact that the nature of the fight against poverty is quickly changing. Back in 2000, the top 10 countries ranked by the largest populations in extreme poverty - collectively accounting for over three-quarters of global poverty - were China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. Between 2000 and 2015, 7 of these 10 countries cut their poverty headcount ratios by at least 70 percent (all but the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Tanzania). This is what drove the global poverty rate down by a percentage point a year.

But as of 2018, many of these countries have already nearly eliminated extreme poverty, and thus have little impact on global aggregate figures. Today, extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in a set of countries that have achieved only limited development success in recent decades, and whose prospects for rapid growth appear slim.

In a new report, we identify the countries least likely to achieve the end of extreme poverty by 2030. We find there are 31 countries that are projected to have poverty headcount ratios of at least 20 percent in 2030. We refer to these places as severely off track countries (SOTCs). Their poverty rates are decreasing very slowly, if at all; we estimate that by 2030, 4 out of 5 people living in extreme poverty will be in these 31 countries. Thus, the advances and setbacks of these countries will determine global success in achieving SDG 1.
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Severly off track countries


More . . . 
See the full article:




http://ragm.org/docs/Ending%20Poverty%20-%20Off%20Track%20Countries_339.pdf

https://www.brookings.edu/experts/geoffrey-gertz/

https://www.brookings.edu/experts/homi-kharas/
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